Frame the decision
State the action, target metric, and deadline as one claim that reality can answer.
Apo turns a consequential decision into one falsifiable claim: do X, hit metric M, by date T.
Invited people file independent probabilities before the room locks. Once sealed, the team sees its confidence, spread, and dissent—without a named scoreboard.
When reality arrives, an outcome receipt closes the record and scores the claim that was actually executed.
What we do
State the action, target metric, and deadline as one claim that reality can answer.
Invited participants submit private probabilities before lock. They do not see one another’s forecasts.
After lock, Apo shows the distribution and disagreement without publishing a named leaderboard.
Record the measured outcome, score the executed claim, and let each participant keep or export their own signed record.
The boundary
Apo evaluates claims against outcomes—not people against one another. It is not a prediction market, an HR score, or a promotion engine.